Taiwan's Fall: Consequences for Australia

Anthony@Berglas.org
ClaudeAI
18 September 2018

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not certain, but it is certainly possible.   China's massive military buildup includes aircraft carriers designed for power projection beyond Taiwan. A successful Chinese takeover of Taiwan could end Australia's strategic independence within a decade. 

How Taiwan Falls

Two scenarios, same result:

• America fights and loses → U.S. credibility shattered globally
• America doesn't fight at all → U.S. security guarantees proven worthless

Either way, Australia faces a difficult situation.

Step 1: South China Sea Becomes Chinese Lake

The Nine-Dash Line becomes real:

• Taiwan's capture includes its outlying islands within the Nine-Dash Line
• China gains permanent air/naval bases throughout South China Sea
• Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia unlikely to fight what Taiwan couldn't survive
• Southeast Asia accepts Chinese dominance
• Australia's trade routes now pass through Chinese-controlled waters

Step 2: Pacific Islands Flip

The Solomons naval base becomes the model:

• Chinese naval base in Solomons cuts Australia's sea lanes to America
• "Security partnerships" spread across Pacific islands (Kiribati, Vanuatu, New Caledonia after "decolonization")
• Each new base isolates Australia further
• Chinese warships patrol "partner" territorial waters
• Australia surrounded by Chinese naval facilities

Step 3: Economic Control

Port control and economic pressure:

• China "invests" in Australian port infrastructure
• Chinese contractors "improve efficiency" at iron ore mines
• China buys 70% of output—when your only customer has strategic control, they set the price
• 30% of Australia's GDP depends on trade with China

Step 4: Vassal Status & Self-Censorship

The COVID lesson scaled up:

• Australia lost $20 billion for asking about virus origins
• Australia's own COVID inquiry quietly avoided the origins question entirely
• Some questions are too expensive to ask

Political and social acquiescence:

• Foreign policy aligns with Chinese interests
• Academic discourse avoids sensitive topics
• Criticism of China becomes "anti-Asian racism"
• China provides AI systems that some in government want to combat "hate speech" and "misinformation"
• Politicians unacceptable to China cannot stand for office

The end result: Formal independence, practical accommodation with regional hegemon.

Possible Timeline: 2025-2035

2025-2027: Taiwan crisis unfolds
2027-2030: Pacific realignment, Chinese port investments accelerate
2030-2033: Economic pressure intensifies, self-censorship spreads
2033-2035: Australia accepts tributary status as "pragmatic partnership"

What About AUKUS?

The comfortable decades of taking Chinese money while hiding behind American protection are ending. Taiwan's fate determines Australia's future.

The alliance becomes Australia's important hedge:

• AUKUS designed to encourage U.S. intervention in Taiwan crisis
• Deeper military integration raises stakes for America
• AUKUS is about more than just subs unlikely to be delivered

If AUKUS fails to deter Chinese action, Australia would face this new reality alone.